The 10-year limit of creativity

A carton of milk is good for a few days. A car might run great for seven or eight years. But few creative people have a shelf life of longer than about 10 years.

Yes, they may continue to paint, sing or write for years after their peaks, but the period during which they lead their field and do their best work doesn't last forever.

Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy made their best movies from 1926-1936. Even though they continued to film comedies through World War II, the spark was gone by then. The Marx Brothers made their first full-length movie, "Cocoanuts," in 1929. By 1937's "A Day at the Races," it was all downhill. Actresses have a particularly short lifespan. Oscar® winners of the 1980s included Sissy Spacek, Sally Field and Cher. Where are they now, not counting nostalgia shows on VH1 or weepy movies on Lifetime? On TV, the marvelously creative Jerry Seinfeld called it quits after a nine-year network run. One of the most popular sitcoms of its day, "M*A*S*H," lasted just more than 10 years. After those series, the actors involved were never able to match their former glory.

Singers' voices may last decades, and occasionally their careers will sustain that long as well. Frank Sinatra rose to popularity in the late 1930s and was still releasing hits into the mid-1960s. Barbra Streisand will be giving "retirement concerts" until she is no longer able to walk out on stage. But they are the exceptions. More typical are careers like those of the Beatles (1961-1970), Nat King Cole (1955-1965), Elvis Presley (1956-1966) and The Beach Boys (1961-1969). How many of the 1980s bands are still around? Wham? A Flock of Seagulls? Dire Straits? Sex Pistols? A handful of groups like the Rolling Stones can record for 40 years, but more typical are the abbreviated careers of Britney Spears (1999-2004) and Ashlee Simpson (April 1, 2004-April 15, 2004). After their glory years, they still give concerts and may possibly hit the Vegas circuit, but they are no longer in the national spotlight.

Vincent Van Gogh only painted between 1880 and 1890, although he cranked out 872 paintings during that time. Andy Warhol was a creative comet streaking across the pop art cosmos between 1963 and 1973, but he burned out thereafter. He lived until 1987, but by age 55, he no longer had the spark. Pablo Picasso proved to be the exception to the 10-year rule. He began painting in 1900, went through a blue period, a rose period, a flirtation with Cubism and then adopted a simpler style that continued almost until his death in 1973. Because of his talent and timeless style, he was able to beat the odds.

Bill Gates is certainly brilliant, but he did his ground-breaking work between 1985 and 1995. Now he and his company, Microsoft, can only move forward by buying up the innovative products of others. Creative individuals usually can't hang onto their dominance for more than 10 years for several reasons. Probably the largest is that culture changes and the creative output must either move from its original concept to stay current or remain in the same place and be left behind. Very few can ride the crest of that wave for very long.

After the creative run is over, there is usually no meteoric fall. Short of premature death (Heath Ledger, River Phoenix, Bruce Lee) or scandal (Michael Jackson, Tonya Harding), our brightest stars are more likely to experience a gentle slide into diminishing artistic returns. Name recognition allows them to coast long past their shelf life, but their careers are never the same after that burst of creativity is spent.

Not that I was ever a great writer, but it bothers me that I hit a productive peak between 1995 and 2005.